This may be the day the Trump trade died

admin | 成都桑拿
14 Sep 2019

Maybe investors should forget the Trump trade and start prepping for the Trump correction.

Wall Street had its worst day since October. The US dollar can’t seem to find a bottom. There’s no rebound in sight for oil. Havens such as US Treasuries and gold are back in vogue.

There’s an undeniable “risk off” vibe reverberating through markets.

The optimism that accompanied Donald Trump’s US election victory was built on a trinity of lower taxes, infrastructure spending and regulatory reform. Now, doubts are rising about any of those being realised, even with Republicans controlling the White House and Congress.

The Obamacare replacement bill is struggling to gain support from House conservatives and Senate Republicans, and some Republican lawmakers argue that a once-in-a-generation opportunity to overhaul the US tax code with cuts for businesses and individuals depends on the outcome.

Bank, industrial and technology shares – some of the biggest beneficiaries of the Trump trade – are suddenly the biggest losers.

It’s a nerve-racking time for investors, who have pushed share prices to record highs. Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller recently said the last time he remembers equity investors being as bullish as they are now was in 2000, and that didn’t end well.

“The amazing run the market has had since the election left no room for error, delay or issues of any kind,” Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at Lindsay Group, wrote in a research note on Tuesday. Dollar capitulation

If markets truly believed that Trump’s policies would juice the economy and spark faster inflation, then the greenback would be a prime beneficiary – except it’s on an epic slump.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen for five straight days, the longest stretch of declines since the week before the election. The gauge dropped overnight to its lowest level since November.

Bank of America said that based on what it sees in terms of market positioning, sentiment surveys conducted with its clients, and publicly available futures data, bullish US dollar positions put on after the election have completely disappeared.

What makes the recent weakness even more compelling is that it comes largely at the expense of gains in the euro, which is on a tear even as Europe faces its own political uncertainty with pending elections in France and Germany, as well as new debt troubles in Greece. Oil’s echo

Concerns are also rising over the oil slump and its ripple effect through markets. Crude fell again overnight, approaching $US47 a barrel as a Bloomberg survey before a government report to be released on Wednesday showed US supplies probably rose to a record last week.

While obviously painful for oil bulls, the drop in crude is weighing on the shares and bonds of junk-rated energy companies. Bonds and gold

How nervous are investors? Just take a look at the market for US government debt.

Demand for the ultimate safe haven is so high that yields on 10-year Treasuries are not only lower than when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week, but also lower than when the central bank boosted rates in December.

Gold, which is another safe haven asset, advanced for a fourth straight day in its longest rally since early February. The 3.65 per cent gain is the biggest over a four-day period since June.

Recent headlines out of Washington “play well into one of our core assumptions about the year ahead in terms of the potential for Trumponomics to disappoint – namely that as The Donald navigates the minefield that is DC politics, he risks quickly burning through his political capital and eroding his effectiveness as an agent of change,” the bond strategists at BMO Capital wrote in a report on Tuesday. China

And don’t forget about China. The news out of the world’s second-largest economy has been relatively positive of late for investors – except for this week.

China’s central bank on Tuesday injected hundreds of billions of yuan into the financial system after some smaller lenders failed to make debt payments in the interbank market, according to people familiar with the matter. The injections followed missed interbank payments on Monday, those sources said.


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